The Joys of Severe Weather Forecasting

The weather has been rather tame lately, so there hasn't been too much to talk about. What follows are random thoughts about weather forecasting......

There have been a couple of "busts" over the past few weeks with regards to severe weather forecasts. I remember the night of the NCAA National Championship many forecasters thought we were in for a substantial outbreak of severe weather. I had bought into the forecast as well. Needless to say, it didn't pan out as expected. Yes, we had a storm with hail that moved through North OKC that night, but that was only one of a few severe storms in the state that day, and none were even close to producing tornadoes. Now for the reason why.....

Lack of moisture. That's it. That's all. Most of the computers had predicted the high-moisture, high-octane air that was sitting over south Texas to surge north into Oklahoma during the evening, providing the last ingredient needed for tornadoes. The more moisture that there is in the air, the closer to ground-level that clouds can form, and the easier it is for storms to rotate closer to the ground. I honestly believe that if more moisture HAD been in place that night, the results would have been different. The storm that moved through OKC had a well-defined hook echo, but this "hook" was located a few thousand feet above ground level, so it was never a threat to tornado. Had that circulation been at ground level, I believe the result COULD have been a large tornado.

The forecasters did the right thing. The potential was there for dangerous weather that night. When the elements are coming together for an outbreak, you better err on the side of caution, because failing to do so could produce some undesirable consequences.