Friday, April 24, 2009

Severe Weather Timeline

Trying to give details on severe weather events more than 1 or 2 days out is virtually impossible, but I am going to try to give a general idea of what to expect the next couple of weeks. What I do know is this: I can't remember the last time I have seen as much severe weather as what could be packed into the next 2 weeks. Usually you get 1 or 2 severe weather days, and the system moves on (under normal circumstances) and you get a break of at least a few days if not a week or so. This time, it appears the 1-2 day severe weather events will be separated by only 1 day breaks in between. So here goes:

Saturday- Greatest threat is over the Western 1/3 of Oklahoma. A localized tornado outbreak is possible over Western Oklahoma, including the possibility of large tornadoes. Threat to OKC-Slight and after dark.

Sunday- Greatest threat over Western 1/2 of Oklahoma. More tornadoes possible, possibly more than on Saturday. Locations will be highly dependent on how soon the storms move out from Saturday night and how much sunshine we receive. Threat to OKC-Slight to Moderate, and after 3PM.

Monday- Greatest threat approx. the SE 1/2 of Oklahoma. Biggest threat this day could be more hail, wind, and flooding than tornadoes, but that is still TBD.

Tuesday- Day of Rest.

Wednesday-Thursday- More severe weather possible, with some indications that one or both of these days could produce a significant severe weather outbreak.

Friday-Next Saturday should be break days. Hopefully the week afterwards also provides a break, but some models indicate the severe weather pattern will continue. This is really tarot card/crystal ball territory.


Elizabeth said...

Tarot card. Hehe. I imagine you sitting in front of a bunch of convection models wearing a purple and gold beanie.

not so zen momma said...

Thank you for the detailed report. I feel advised.