Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Severe Weather Ahead

I thought the severe weather potential next week deserved a post. A pretty nasty looking storm is showing up for later next week into next weekend (May 22nd-May 26th). The computer models have been pretty consistent in showing this developing, so even though it is over a week away, I am starting to feel fairly confident that a tornado outbreak will occur on the Plains during this timeframe. Locations/specifics are still way to early to pin down, but this situation looks like a classic Oklahoma severe weather event, instead of the surprise spin-up mini-tornadoes we have been getting here in the city the past couple of months.

Also, I haven't blogged since the outbreak this past Saturday that included the tornado in Picher. Very sad, especially considering the plight of the town regardless of the tornado. The tornado was rated EF-4, the first tornado in Eastern Oklahoma rated that high since 1993. The tornado hit really close to home for a friend of ours, and she recently blogged about it.

The width of the tornado was a mile at it's widest, and the path length was an unbelievable 76 miles. To put that in perspective, no tornado on May 3, 1999 had a path length that long. One tornado being on the ground for that long is extremely rare. The norm is for a supercell to create a "family" of tornadoes, where one tornado dissipates, and then the storm re-organizes and a while later puts down a new tornado, and so on.

4 comments:

Elizabeth said...

question: What would the EF rating have been for the May 3rd tornado?

Nathan said...

Answer: Even with the new scale it would have been EF-5 because a few foundations were wiped clean and only the slabs were left. The scale is a damage scale, not a wind speed scale. If a mile wide tornado moves through open country and hits no trees or structures, it will be rated EF-0 because we have no way of knowing how strong it actually was.

Daisy said...

Ugh, don't tell me this! I'll actually be in OKC that weekend, so if anything crazy happens, I'm coming to hunker down with you and Liz!

Last weekend's storms were horrible. We were in the closet 3 different times because the local stations are so inept. They continued to say there was a tornado in the ground in my city, yet they could give no specifics, and most of their storm spotter reports were at least 3-5 minutes old. 3-5 minutes... You'd never see Gary and Val pull that! Only 2 days later did I find out it came within a half mile of our house, though we never had any indication (no hail, thunder, or anything). Luckily, it was only an EF-1, so there was not too much damage. I think I've said it on every comment of yours, but I can't wait to get back to OK w/ competent weathermen.

Charly said...

Nathan,
I'm just now reading your blog (as I set at my desk waiting for a tree limb to come flying in my window)! I'm with Daisy, I'm ready to move back to OKC area just so I can have the weathermen tell me when to go for cover. I'm really enjoying your blog. Keep it up Weatherman! :)