Day After Christmas Severe Weather

After being in the 20's recently, expect 60's on Christmas Day and then possibly 70 on Friday! It will feel like March as humid air streams across Oklahoma ahead of the next cold front. That cold front could trigger some thunderstorms late Friday and Friday night, with some severe weather possible across Eastern Oklahoma. Don't be surprised if a Tornado Watch is issued for Eastern Oklahoma the day after Christmas. Hey, it's Oklahoma. Why are you shocked?

By the way, the entire country of Canada is experiencing a White Christmas. This is the first time that has happened since 1971! So much for global warming! Don't get me started on that subject........

POTENTIAL Winter Storm.....

Some of the latest model forecasts show a huge pool of arctic air developing in Alaska and Northern Canada, then diving south during the first week of December, sometime on or after 12/2. This cold air could be followed by a potential winter storm. It is way too early to know specific details and dates, but stay tuned.......

Winter Forecast

Here goes! This forecast is based on gut feeling, looking at past trends, what has happened so far this year, and El Nino-La Nina. Last year I predicted a warmer than average winter and near average precipitation. It turned out to be an average winter temperature-wise. We had above average precipitation.

So far this year, the U.S. has received near average or below average temperatures. In fact, global temperatures have fallen slightly the past couple of years. Also, El Nino AND La Nina are both absent right now, so neither will have that great of an effect.

I am going to predict a colder than average and drier than average winter. We can expect more frequent intrusions of arctic air than in the past few winters. In fact, I'll make a BOLD prediction that we will see a below-zero temperature reading in Oklahoma City for the first time in over a decade.

I don't think we will see an ice storm as crippling as the one we had last year. Snowfall will be around average, so we can expect about 10 inches of snow for the whole winter.

There you go. Print this out and laugh at me come Spring.

Warning: RANT

I just don't understand.

If you were told one morning that there was a 10% chance that your house would be hit by a tornado and you would be killed later that day, would you stay home and hope for the 9 out of 10? To me, this is basically what the people who refuse to leave Galveston Island are saying that are in MANDATORY evacuation zones.

I would not be playing Russian Roulette with a possible 20 foot storm surge that could rival that of Katrina's due to the sheer size of this hurricane. Yes, previous storms have veered away and missed you. Yes, this one could also miss you. Unfortunately, if the 10% does happen, by the time you realize it, it is too late. If you try to fight water, water will always win. Period.

Sorry to sound a little harsh. But it is frustrating to have the technology to warn those that could be affected, but still have a pit in the stomach feeling that a worst-case scenario (10% odds) with this storm could claim hundreds of lives.

Ike Likes Texas.....and Oklahoma

Before I continue, check out this video of Ike when it hit Cuba:
http://video.ap.org/v/default.aspx?f=NYNYD&g=2e4a6b6b-ea8c-4115-947a-81266239cadd&mk=en-ap&fg=svip_homepage_copy

Ike is rapidly strengthening after leaving Cuba, and it is probably going to become a monster in the Gulf of Mexico. I think it will strengthen to a borderline Category 3-Category 4 hurricane by Thursday with max winds near 130MPH. It will make landfall Friday night somewhere near Galveston. Not only will Ike be strong, but it will also be very large. Currently, the Tropical Storm-force winds (40-74MPH) have a radius of 230 miles around the center of the storm! By the time it makes landfall, Hurricane force and Tropical Storm force winds could extend out 300 miles from the center, which would affect the entire Texas coast, not just the point where the center makes landfall.

The following is my take on how Ike will affect our weather later this week and this weekend.

Disclaimer: The following scenario is subject to change, but this is what the last 3 model runs have shown for the next few days.......

1) A swath of 4-7 inches of rain across the I-44 corridor, with a few isolated locations near 10 inches from Thursday through Sunday.

2) The center of Ike will head north just east of I-35 Saturday night and Sunday, creating winds gusting to as high as 40-50MPH.

3) Isolated tornadoes possible Saturday night and Sunday from I-35 east.


I'll update this info as things become more clear over the next few days.

Hype With Ike

You might hear some local TV meteorologists sounding the alarm over the next few days about the remnants of Ike moving through Oklahoma late this weekend, possibly causing significant flooding. We all know that some local guys can tend to "overhype" weather events on occassion. However, if the remnants of a hurricane are forecasted to move overhead, I would do the same thing if I were the forecaster. Here is why: Inland Flooding from heavy rain is the number one killer from hurricanes. Not storm surge at the coast. Not high winds. The most deaths occur inland, away from the coast, becuase of the rain that results inland.

We are still too far away to know if Ike will affect us, but if it happens, it's not something to be taken lightly.

Here are the top five rainfalls caused by tropical systems in Oklahoma history:

1) 18.71 inches from Norma, 1981 in Kingston

2) 16.95 inches from Tico, 1983 in Chickasha

3) 12.81 inches from Erin, 2007 in Eakly

4) 12.07 inches from Dean, 1995 at Great Salt Plains Lake

5) 11.02 inches from Frances, 1998 in Valliant

Bad

The residents of the Gulf Coast need our thoughts and prayers. Especially those that live between Houston and New Orleans. All signs are pointing towards a potentially devastating hurricane making landfall in the U.S. sometime Tuesday afternoon or night. Gustav has the potential to "bomb out" (meteorological meaning-rapidly intensify) Friday and Saturday. Currently it is a Tropical Storm, but the potential is there for it to become a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday and potentially a Category 4 storm by Monday. Unfortunately, the waters of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico right now are about as warm as bathwater, and the winds in the upper-levels of the atmosphere will be light. There appears to be nothing to stop Gustav from becoming a monster.

There is also a chance that Gustav could affect our weather by next Wednesday or Thursday. If by chance the remnants make it our way we could see flooding rainfall and a few isolated tornadoes.

Also of note: Tropical Storm Hanna has formed east of the Bahamas. This storm also has the potential to impact the U.S. next week, possibly as a major hurricane as well.