Where Are the Sunspots?

I ran across this story recently on the Web and in the news. Here's the jist of it. The Sun goes through solar cycles in a recurring pattern every 11 years, with a peak of activity, decreasing to a lull, and then back to a peak, and so on and so on. A minimum was predicted to occur back at the end of 2007 and early 2008, after which sunspot activity would increase. Well, needless to say the Sun has scientists baffled. For nearly a year the Sun has produced little to no sunspots, and this minimum in activity has lasted much longer than anyone expected.

How does this affect Earth? Well, during solar maximums there can be disruptions of cellular service and satellite transmissions, as well as more frequent Northern Lights. A more unknown affect on Earth is our climate. Some scientists argue that an increase in sunspots increases the amount of solar energy that the Sun emits, which in turn can cause Earth to warm. Decreases in sunspots, accordingly, would cause Earth to cool. Some argue that our recent period of "global warming" has been caused in part by increased solar activity.

An interesting thing to note is a period between the mid-1600's and early 1700's, which is known as the Little Ice Age. This period saw brutal, long winters and famine because of crop failures due to the extreme cold. At the same time as the Little Ice Age was the Maunder Minimum, which was a period in which the Sun produced little to no sunspots. Whether the two are related is up to debate, but it would be interesting to see what happened if the Sun unexpectedly entered a dormant period now as it did over 400 years ago.

Nate Said it Would

Is it conceited to give myself props for mentioning the possibility of snow today nearly a week ago? (See March Madness post below)

Please advise.

Nice, ORDINARY Thunderstorms

It was nice to get some much needed rainfall without hearing tornado sirens at the same time tonight. The metro got anywhere from one half to one inch of rain, which was great to water in the new plants in our flower beds and weed application on the lawn!

I really thought there would at least be a couple of tornadoes in Oklahoma tonight, but I think in the end we didn't have enough moisture or instability in the atmosphere. For a severe weather event you typically want cold air aloft, between 5,000 and 10,000 feet up. This helps air rise faster in a thunderstorm updraft, giving it more energy. This is a long way to say that the upper levels of the atmosphere were probably a little too warm to produce significant severe weather.

One of the reasons I love weather is the mystery it provides. For as much as we know, there is more we don't know. All we can do is forecast what we believe the most likely outcome will be. Kansas had tornadoes this past Saturday with conditions that appeared less favorable for tornadoes than the conditions we had here tonight. The storms definitely had small hook-echoes on them around 10PM, and in fact one tracked near the Edmond tornado alley from Mercy up towards downtown Edmond. If there had been more moisture and instability, this storm may have become a tornado producer.

Teaser for the next topic to write about.........my plans on going on a one-day storm chase this Spring with a reputable storm chasing tour company........

Severe Weather Risk Monday 3/9/09

I am going to try something for this upcoming severe weather season. When I believe a noteworthy severe weather event is upcoming, I will post the breakdown of the different threats and a brief discussion. The three categories will be risks for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight-line winds. I will predict either a slight, moderate, or high risk for the OKC metro and surrounding counties. So here goes for Monday!

Tornado- Slight
Large Hail- Slight
High Wind- Slight

Moisture will be slow to return, and clouds may prevent maximum heating during the day, but strong shear and the approach of a cold front will probably trigger some thunderstorms during the afternoon, some of which may be supercells. Wind gusts up to 60MPH, hail to golfball size, and a brief tornado or two appear to be what is expected at this time, generally between Highway 81 and Interstate 35.

March Madness

Forecast:

Friday- Highs in the 80's, high fire danger

Monday- Severe weather possible in Oklahoma, with tornadoes a possiblilty

Next Thursday/Friday- Much colder, snow possible in the northern half of the state.

No, I am not making this up. That is all for now.

Mythbusters!

In response to Liz's request a while back, here are some common weather and tornado myths:

1) It can be too cold to snow......false!
-The colder the air temperature, the less snow that will probably fall, but this is due to the fact that cold air can not hold as much moisture as warm air. So if enough moisture can be squeezed out, it can snow at any temperature.

2) Skyscrapers help protect downtown areas from tornadoes.....false!
-We don't hear of downtowns being hit by tornadoes very often, but consider the miniscule land area that they cover in proportion to the whole country. That is why they aren't hit very often. However, four downtowns have been hit over the last ten years: Fort Worth, Nashville, Salt Lake City, and Atlanta. I think it may be possible that a weak tornado could be disturbed by tall buildings. However, I don't think a mile-wide tornado that extends six miles vertically in a thunderstorm would care if a skyscraper was in the way. By the way, I believe the downtown area of Oklahoma City is long overdue for a tornado.

3) Violent tornadoes are confined to "tornado alley"........false!
-Here is a list of F5 tornadoes outside of "tornado alley"
Flint, Michigan, 1953
Fargo, North Dakota, 1957
Tracy, Minnesota, 1968
Wheatland, Pennsylvania, 1985
Elie, Manitoba, Canada, 2007

4) An overpass is a better tornado shelter than a ditch.......false!
-The higher you are above ground, the stronger the wind. So why would you go up an embankment inside a virtual wind tunnel to get away from tornadic winds? Tornadic winds are greatly diminished right at ground-level, so you are much better off to lie in a ditch. Many deaths and life-altering injuries on May 3, 1999 occurred underneath overpasses.

5) Oklahoma is the most tornado-prone state in the U.S.......true and false!
-Technically, Florida has more tornadoes per square mile, but they are mainly the weak variety. Also, while Oklahoma statistically has more significant tornadoes per square mile than any other state, we are really only using 50 years of data out of thousands of years that tornadoes have been occurring here. There are trends that show tornado alley "shifts" every once in a while. Sometimes the S.E. U.S. seems to get more tornado outbreaks over a multi-year timespan. Last year Kansas set a record for most tornadoes recorded in that state in one year, while Oklahoma had an average year. (Disclaimer: Our house has been within one mile of two tornadoes the past two years. I think we have a mini-tornado alley near our house)

Not a Forecast, But a Gut Feeling

It appears the first couple of weeks of March will be active with severe weather, possibly affecting Oklahoma, Texas, and points east. In fact, the weather pattern shaping up for Spring is remarkably similar to last year. Last year we had many dry strecthes during the Spring, but they were intermingled with tornado outbreaks, which mainly spared Oklahoma (except for Picher) and hit Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri particularly hard. We would be extremely lucky to escape the major tornado outbreaks again this year. Gary England should probably start building up his sleep reserves right now......