Hype With Ike

You might hear some local TV meteorologists sounding the alarm over the next few days about the remnants of Ike moving through Oklahoma late this weekend, possibly causing significant flooding. We all know that some local guys can tend to "overhype" weather events on occassion. However, if the remnants of a hurricane are forecasted to move overhead, I would do the same thing if I were the forecaster. Here is why: Inland Flooding from heavy rain is the number one killer from hurricanes. Not storm surge at the coast. Not high winds. The most deaths occur inland, away from the coast, becuase of the rain that results inland.

We are still too far away to know if Ike will affect us, but if it happens, it's not something to be taken lightly.

Here are the top five rainfalls caused by tropical systems in Oklahoma history:

1) 18.71 inches from Norma, 1981 in Kingston

2) 16.95 inches from Tico, 1983 in Chickasha

3) 12.81 inches from Erin, 2007 in Eakly

4) 12.07 inches from Dean, 1995 at Great Salt Plains Lake

5) 11.02 inches from Frances, 1998 in Valliant

Bad

The residents of the Gulf Coast need our thoughts and prayers. Especially those that live between Houston and New Orleans. All signs are pointing towards a potentially devastating hurricane making landfall in the U.S. sometime Tuesday afternoon or night. Gustav has the potential to "bomb out" (meteorological meaning-rapidly intensify) Friday and Saturday. Currently it is a Tropical Storm, but the potential is there for it to become a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday and potentially a Category 4 storm by Monday. Unfortunately, the waters of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico right now are about as warm as bathwater, and the winds in the upper-levels of the atmosphere will be light. There appears to be nothing to stop Gustav from becoming a monster.

There is also a chance that Gustav could affect our weather by next Wednesday or Thursday. If by chance the remnants make it our way we could see flooding rainfall and a few isolated tornadoes.

Also of note: Tropical Storm Hanna has formed east of the Bahamas. This storm also has the potential to impact the U.S. next week, possibly as a major hurricane as well.

Hurricane Gustav

It's late and I'm finally done doing homework. Checked out how newly formed Gustav is doing. Needless to say, it went from Tropical Depression to Hurricane in less than 24 hours. Model projections look grim at this point. Before you read the following bullet-points, remember that forecasting a hurricane past 3 or 4 days in advance is about as accurate as a Ouija board.

-Gustav looks like it will stay south of Cuba, and move closer to the Mexican Yucatan peninsula.

-Gustav could enter the Gulf of Mexico as a potentially devastating Category 4 hurricane.

-The mere presence of a hurricane of this magnitude will cause oil prices to skyrocket. Oil currently sits at $110/barrel. $130/barrel would not be out of the question if the above scenario takes place.

-Currently, any city that lies on the Gulf of Mexico is at risk. It is too early to estimate a location of landfall.

Be ready to get your fill of Gustav.

Oklahoma Weather History.....August 18 (continued)

The following is the aftermath of the storm I posted about yesterday in the entry below. It must have been some sight to say the least. Again this is from the National Weather Service website.


Residents who were in the path of the 1994 Lahoma storm, awoke on this morning to find a strange world. The devastating wind and hail storm on the previous day had stripped nearly every tree of leaves in the Lahoma and Drummond areas. That, along with plowed fields from harvested wheat, left the August landscape looking eerily more like mid winter. Hail was still on the ground in some protected areas around Lahoma on the afternoon of the 18th, more than 24 hours after the storm.

Oklahoma Weather History.....August 17

I ran across this on the National Weather Service website. Incredible!


One of the most memorable severe thunderstorms in recent history struck north-central and central Oklahoma on August 17, 1994. The communities of Lahoma and Drummond suffered the most damage from an unusually intense supercell storm, that moved south into Oklahoma near Manchester, and continued across Goltry, Lahoma, Drummond, Kingfisher, and Okarche. Widespread severe damage occurred to between 500 and 800 permanent homes and businesses, and between 80 and 120 mobile homes, all the result of very large hail driven by hurricane-force winds. Peak wind gusts in Lahoma were measured at 113 MPH, before the wind equipment gave out. Hail reached golf ball to baseball size along the entire storm track. One hailstone that fell between Kingfisher and Okarche was said to look like a football. Several people were treated for hypothermia in the Lahoma area as a result of the large volume of hail, as air temperatures fell from near 100 degrees, down into the lower 50s.

Tropical Storm Fay....Major Hurricane Next Week?

The newest Tropical Storm has formed today over the island of Haiti & the Dominican Republic. It is forecasted to cross over central or western Cuba over the next couple of days, and then curve to the north-northwest towards the Florida panhandle the middle of next week. I have a feeling this is going to become a newsmaker, because once Fay crosses Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, the waters are extremely warm, and most importantly, the winds are very light. We could be looking at our first Category 3 or higher hurricane next week, affecting the U.S.

Stay Tuned.

Tropical Storm Dolly

Dolly? Seriously? Even when it becomes a hurricane, who is going to evacuate from Hurricane Dolly? Look out, big bad Dolly means business!

They really should consult me before they name hurricanes.