Ice Forecast

OK, after looking at everything this morning, I am going to forecast a total of a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation when all is said and done Wednesday. This is enough to make the roads bad, cause some power outages to areas that lose power easily, but this will not be to the extent of last year's storm. I still feel that way. Also, some of the freezing rain will probably mix with sleet at times, making the glaze ice a little less. The worst and heaviest of the precipitation will be from sunset Monday evening through sunrise Tuesday morning.

Updates later if things change.

Ice Storm Update

Here's the latest on my thinking......we are going to be below freezing from Monday morning all the way through Wednesday morning, which isn't good. However, I think the heaviest freezing rain will fall SE of OKC, while OKC gets a mix of freezing rain and sleet at times. I will say we get a quarter of an inch of ice total, which definitely will make driving dangerous, and may cause some branches to come down and minor power interruptions, but not to the extent of last year's ice storm. This is still subject to change, so I'll post again tomorrow on the latest.

Uh Oh.....Another Crippling Ice Storm?

You may have seen some local forecasts the past few days mentioning the chance of a bit of freezing rain on Monday....enough to cause travel problems but not enough for much beyond that.

Well, after looking at the National Weather Service website Saturday morning, I have to say that we may be in store for something much worse from Monday all the way through possibly Thursday. The tough part of the forecast is that there are so many variables to try to predict:

1) How much moisture will be available, considering how dry it has been lately?
2) How long will temperatures be below freezing? How long will the arctic air hold on?
3) Will the heaviest rain fall in parts of the state that are above freezing or below freezing?

Right now, it looks like the majority of precipitation will fall as freezing rain. Not good. When you hear pinging sounds on the windows, that is sleet, which is much better than plain rain when it is below freezing. We may have freezing drizzle during the day Monday, but the heaviest rain will probably start Monday night into Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, some models have freezing rain falling through Wednesday.

How much freezing rain? The two main computer models have differing opinions. One model says between 0.25 and 0.75 inches of rain, which would cause travel problems and maybe a few power problems, but nothing like last year. The other model shows Armageddon, with between 1 and 2 inches of FREEZING rain. This would be another crippling ice storm like what we had last winter. Right now I am siding (wishcasting) with the 0.25-0.75 inch forecast, but I will post an update later if my thinking changes.

Really, Really, Really, Really Cold

Just got home from work and am now getting ready for a baby tonight! So I thought one more Nateorology post before Anna's arrival would suffice.

Prediction: Either next Thursday night or Friday night, the official low in OKC will be near zero, like I said would happen at least once this winter in my earlier Winter forecast. A huge arctic airmass is going to dislodge from Alaska and Canada and head south. It is going to be brutally cold. Welcome home, I mean Welcome to Oklahoma, Brandon!

Day After Christmas Severe Weather

After being in the 20's recently, expect 60's on Christmas Day and then possibly 70 on Friday! It will feel like March as humid air streams across Oklahoma ahead of the next cold front. That cold front could trigger some thunderstorms late Friday and Friday night, with some severe weather possible across Eastern Oklahoma. Don't be surprised if a Tornado Watch is issued for Eastern Oklahoma the day after Christmas. Hey, it's Oklahoma. Why are you shocked?

By the way, the entire country of Canada is experiencing a White Christmas. This is the first time that has happened since 1971! So much for global warming! Don't get me started on that subject........

POTENTIAL Winter Storm.....

Some of the latest model forecasts show a huge pool of arctic air developing in Alaska and Northern Canada, then diving south during the first week of December, sometime on or after 12/2. This cold air could be followed by a potential winter storm. It is way too early to know specific details and dates, but stay tuned.......

Winter Forecast

Here goes! This forecast is based on gut feeling, looking at past trends, what has happened so far this year, and El Nino-La Nina. Last year I predicted a warmer than average winter and near average precipitation. It turned out to be an average winter temperature-wise. We had above average precipitation.

So far this year, the U.S. has received near average or below average temperatures. In fact, global temperatures have fallen slightly the past couple of years. Also, El Nino AND La Nina are both absent right now, so neither will have that great of an effect.

I am going to predict a colder than average and drier than average winter. We can expect more frequent intrusions of arctic air than in the past few winters. In fact, I'll make a BOLD prediction that we will see a below-zero temperature reading in Oklahoma City for the first time in over a decade.

I don't think we will see an ice storm as crippling as the one we had last year. Snowfall will be around average, so we can expect about 10 inches of snow for the whole winter.

There you go. Print this out and laugh at me come Spring.