Nateorology

Hurricane Nate?

2011-06-08T14:55:00.003-05:00

Well, my namesake is on the list of potential named storms in the Atlantic this year. Which got me thinking....is this a good thing or a bad thing?

If Hurricane Nate became a Category 5 hurricane in the middle of the Atlantic, set records for wind speed and low pressure, then veered away from the U.S. coast without damage or casualties, that would be pretty cool.

On the other hand, what would happen if it became another Katrina? Of course this is not likely. But it just got me thinking: How many people named Katrina cringe that their name is associated with one of the worst natural and manmade disasters in American history?

More random thoughts: What if we named tornadoes? How would you feel if your name was associated with Tuscaloosa? Joplin? Should we even name storms? It almost gives hurricanes an aura all their own. Some people even refer to a hurricane as "he" or "she". Does this make hurricanes seem less "evil" than tornadoes? Remember, Katrina and many other hurricanes have claimed countless more lives than a single tornado or single tornado season have.

Let me know what you think.

Storm Season 2011-Tragedy, Awe, and Guilt

2011-06-01T22:02:00.013-05:00

The year was 1953. The National Weather Service was not allowed to use the word "tornado" in forecasts, for the fear that it might cause people to panic. Tornado Warnings were a figment of the imagination. It was the year that would spur the astounding advancements in tornado research and forecasting.

5/11/53-Waco, Texas F5: 114 dead
6/8/53- Flint, Michigan F5: 116 dead
6/9/53- Worcester, Mass. F4: 94 dead

I remember reading books growing up stating that the days of single tornadoes killing over 100 people were over. Up until this year, I believed them.

4/25-4/28/11- Southeastern Super Outbreak: 322 dead
5/22/11-Joplin, MO EF5: 134 dead; 8th deadliest tornado in U.S. history
2011 storm season so far: 522 dead; most in 1 year since 1936

The events of this year have affected me emotionally. I remember seeing the incredible radar signature of the Tuscaloosa tornado. So I decided to pull up the live streaming coverage of the ABC affiliate in Tuscaloosa/Birmingham. The first image I saw was one of the tower cams in Tuscaloosa showing the violent tornado in the center of the city. The tower cam that was there to show traffic jams was showing a tornado tearing up the heart of the city, while the TV meteorologist did his best to keep his composure. He did an amazing job, by the way, and probably saved countless lives.

The next event that will be seared in my brain is Joplin. This time, there was a threat of tornadoes, but it didn't seem to be a threat of violent tornadoes, at least in my opinion. The tornado went from funnel to monster in seconds, right on the outskirts of the city. A warning meterologist's worst nightmare. I was watching the Weather Channel as on-air personality Mike Bettes, who was chasing the storm, arrived in Joplin minutes after the tornado hit. He had been on what the Weather Channel was dubbing "The Great Tornado Hunt." As he went on-air live, he broke down. As the camera panned, there was utter devastation as far as the eye could see. I watched as this unfolded, live. Right before he broke down, he uttered the words, "We were just out here doing research." I broke down with him. An hour previous he had been admiring the work of Mother Nature. Then he was confronted with the absolute hell that these storms can cause.

I have been asked before, "How can you like tornadoes?" Like is a strong word. Fascination, awe, respect, and wonderment are more appropriate, and also the reason why this year has affected me so much. While watching videos of tornadoes, I'm usually in "weather-mode." I'm amazed at how different each of these storms can be, and at what the atmosphere can produce. The realization of lives affected comes after the fascination. No matter how much my wife confirms the fact that I have no control over the weather, I feel guilt for the initial excitement of seeing the tornado.

This guilt really hit home for me during the Oklahoma tornado outbreak last Tuesday. From the beginning of the El Reno-Piedmont tornado, I was truly in awe of it. It was massive. Other storms that were trying to interfere with the storm's mesocyclone were just sucked up into it. I knew it was going to be bad. Doppler radar was showing maxed-out red and maxed-out green (winds blowing towards and away from the radar site), right next to each other. Radar reflectivity, which is used to determine rain intensity and hail sizes, was showing bright red and purple in the tornado. This was actally debris that the radar was showing, and this radar signature was headed for NW Oklahoma County, where my family and friends live.

Minutes before friends and children gathered in the underground storm shelter that close friends so generously shared with us, I talked with my 2 year old daughter. Our earlier test run had not gone so well. Anna cried even before going into the shelter. So I thought it was best to talk to her. I told her that it was going to thunder. She liked that, since she enjoyed the thunder the night before. I told her we were going into a fun tunnel, and we were all going to be safe and happy. She nodded at me. I then asked if she could be good for Mommy and Daddy, and be a big girl. She nodded again. At the same time, I was thinking about what would happen if our friends' house was hit. I was truly scared. At that moment, I wanted nothing more than to protect her and Liz. Little did I know that during this time there was an EF-5 tornado on the ground, the strongest winds on Earth, only a few miles from where I was. And it was ruining lives.

I share this story because it explains where my guilt comes from. At the moment of impact, all tornado victims care about is protecting their loved ones. They don't care about Doppler radar velocities, EF-ratings, or amazing videos. In this day and age, it almost feels like I am "gawking" at other's suffering. I just have to remind myself that without the researchers, storm chasers, and meterologists who get adrenaline rushes every time they see a tornado, our warning system would not be what it is today.

Sorry for the long, rambling post. I'm not looking for sympathy for my guilt. I just needed a method and forum to vent this. It's been a roller coaster ride the past month or two.

High Risk of Severe Weather

2009-04-26T11:15:00.002-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman has issued a rare high risk of severe weather for the Western half of Oklahoma for this afternoon and tonight.......this is the first high risk in Oklahoma in five years. The potential exists for tornadoes, some of which could be long-tracked, strong, and large. I wasn't thinking the threat would be this serious, but anytime the SPC issues a high risk, it should grab anyone's attention, as they are the world's foremost severe weather forecasters.

Severe Weather Timeline

2009-04-24T23:55:00.004-05:00

Trying to give details on severe weather events more than 1 or 2 days out is virtually impossible, but I am going to try to give a general idea of what to expect the next couple of weeks. What I do know is this: I can't remember the last time I have seen as much severe weather as what could be packed into the next 2 weeks. Usually you get 1 or 2 severe weather days, and the system moves on (under normal circumstances) and you get a break of at least a few days if not a week or so. This time, it appears the 1-2 day severe weather events will be separated by only 1 day breaks in between. So here goes:

Saturday- Greatest threat is over the Western 1/3 of Oklahoma. A localized tornado outbreak is possible over Western Oklahoma, including the possibility of large tornadoes. Threat to OKC-Slight and after dark.

Sunday- Greatest threat over Western 1/2 of Oklahoma. More tornadoes possible, possibly more than on Saturday. Locations will be highly dependent on how soon the storms move out from Saturday night and how much sunshine we receive. Threat to OKC-Slight to Moderate, and after 3PM.

Monday- Greatest threat approx. the SE 1/2 of Oklahoma. Biggest threat this day could be more hail, wind, and flooding than tornadoes, but that is still TBD.

Tuesday- Day of Rest.

Wednesday-Thursday- More severe weather possible, with some indications that one or both of these days could produce a significant severe weather outbreak.

Friday-Next Saturday should be break days. Hopefully the week afterwards also provides a break, but some models indicate the severe weather pattern will continue. This is really tarot card/crystal ball territory.

Severe Weather Outbreaks on the Horizon

2009-04-22T23:45:00.003-05:00

It appears the real severe weather season in Oklahoma will get going beginning this Saturday. The models over the past couple of days have been hinting at a pattern that will result in a prolonged period of thunderstorms with associated severe weather potential and heavy rain/flooding potential. I can see a possible scenario of severe weather in the state every day from Saturday through the end of next week. Beyond the end of next week it's vague, but the pattern could continue beyond that.

This Saturday evening the severe weather threat will be over western Oklahoma, with the greatest threat over NW Oklahoma. Wind shear profiles look ideal for supercells: from top to bottom (surface) the winds go from W, to SW, to S, to SSE at ground-level. I imagine there will be 1-3 isolated supercells in western Oklahoma Saturday evening that will have the threat of producing tornadoes. Any threat to OKC appears slight at this time and would more than likely be between 10PM and 2AM.

Depending on where the cold front sets up Sunday and the rest of next week (which is highly dependent on the amount of rain that occurs with/behind the front), more severe weather and isolated tornadoes will be possible. One day I see on the horizon that could have an enhanced threat of tornadoes would be Wednesday, but that is not set in stone by any means.

Bottom line is this: Late April and Early May are primetime for severe weather in Oklahoma. Some years we are lacking in storms moving through during this peak season, but it appears as though a stormy pattern will coincide with peak severe weather season this year. Just stay weather aware over the next couple of weeks. If you don't own one, I highly recommend purchasing a programmable NOAA weather radio. The programmable radios are more expensive, but you can set them to just go off for certain counties and certain warnings (Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm, Flood, etc.) The cheaper ones give you peace of mind as well, but you can only program by county, not by type of warning.

More updates to come in the coming days!

Work-Week Weather and Long-Range Severe Wx

2009-04-18T12:20:00.003-05:00

If you have any extra time you can take off of work this week you may want to use it! Beautiful weather will be here from Monday all the way through the next weekend. There will be a little bit of wind, but it's Oklahoma, so you should expect that. Temperatures will range from the mid 70's to the mid 80's with plenty of sunshine!

I've looked at some of the long-range computer models, and I have a feeling things are going to get pretty interesting around here starting the first week of May. Until then, a large ridge of high pressure is going to build over the Plains and Gulf of Mexico, which will allow heating, and most importantly in terms of severe weather, moisture build-up. Starting that first week of May, a parade of storms looks to begin impacting the Central Plains. As opposed to the rest of the storms we have dealt with this year, these coming ones will have plenty of heat and humidity to work with. This will probably yield a few severe weather/tornado outbreaks in the Plains. I say the Plains just because it is impossible to pin down locations this far out. So get ready to buckle your seatbelts........we may be in for a bumpy ride.

Late Start to Spring

2009-04-15T23:09:00.002-05:00

Anyone wondering when Spring will be here permanently? So far this Spring there has been an endless stream of cold fronts moving through every 3-4 days. In addition to keeping temperatures down, this has also reduced the amount of severe weather we have seen so far. The cold fronts have taken the warmth and moisture that is needed for severe weather and shoved them down deep into the southern Gulf of Mexico. So other than the February tornadoes, severe weather season has been tame so far.

I suspect our severe weather season will ramp up in early to mid May and go a little later than normal, probably late June. The second half of April will probably be warmer and drier than normal. This will actually allow the Gulf to build up some heat and moisture content so that storm systems that move in during May will have adequate moisture to work with. Bottom line as to my thinking in terms of severe weather: The rest of April will be quieter than normal, May will be normal, and June may be more active than normal.

Record Cold

2009-04-06T23:57:00.003-05:00

It appears as though OKC is going to set a new record low for April 7th. The old record is 27, and we will probably get down around 25. We have been in a strange weather pattern with record snow, high wind, and now record cold. One reason for this is the Jet Stream winds have been stronger than normal over Oklahoma, pushing low pressure systems through Oklahoma faster than normal. This is causing the high wind and lack of rainfall, because storm systems do not have time to pull up Gulf moisture before they high-tail out of Oklahoma.

A Spring pattern is beginning to show up by the middle of this week. We could have some severe weather Thursday afternoon as the next storm moves in, but I think the main threat will be over Eastern Oklahoma. Tornadoes will be possible there as well.

A stronger and slower moving system is forecasted over Easter. Right now it appears to be more of a heavy rain producer than a severe weather maker. We could get as much as 2-3 inches of rain on Easter Sunday. We'll see how that pans out.

Record Snowfall

2009-03-28T12:06:00.003-05:00

Just not in OKC!

Laverne, Alva, and Freedom unofficially have recorded 25 inches of snow, with drifts approaching eaves of some houses and cars being buried. This total, if made official, would be the second largest snowstorm in Oklahoma recorded history.

Now everyone else be happy with your inch of snow and blame northwest Oklahoma for taking all of ours!

Oklahoma Semi-Blizzard.......Update

2009-03-27T17:39:00.002-05:00

A weather balloon that was released this afternoon by the National Weather Service shows a small layer of warm air aloft (not predicted well by the computers) that is preventing snowfall so far. This should delay the snow in OKC until around 8:00 or so, and may lower snowfall amounts slightly. I'll go with 6-8 inches in NW OKC, 3-6 inches in central OKC, and 1-3 inches in southeast OKC. The heaviest snow will fall after Midnight, with some rumbles of thunder possible towards morning.

Oklahoma Blizzard.......Update

2009-03-26T23:33:00.006-05:00

As of 11:00 Thursday night, it is 24 degrees in the western Oklahoma panhandle, with 6 inches of snow on the ground already. All I have to say is.......get ready.

A very, very powerful low pressure system is digging south over the Rockies and heading our way still. I would be shocked if the forecast changed now, considering the models have been showing the same thing now for nearly 3 days.

I can't remember a winter storm that looks as impressive as this one. I would not be surprised if the snow forecasts below are exceeded in some areas.

SE OKC....Midwest City, Del City, and Moore......2-4 inches
Central OKC....Bethany, The Village.................3-5 inches
NW OKC, Edmond, Guthrie.............................4-8 inches
Far NW Metro.....Kingfisher, Piedmont..............5-10 inches
NW Oklahoma, S Kansas, Wichita....7-14 inches.....5-6 ft snow drifts

The snow should start around 4PM and last until Noon Saturday. Friday night/Saturday morning there may be convective bands of snow that form, which would be thundersnow. Winds Saturday morning could gust over 40MPH, which could cause near-blizzard conditions in the northern sections of Oklahoma City.

This storm could go down in the record books for most snow in Oklahoma City during March, and a top-ten all time storm somewhere northwest of here.

Anyone know any good sledding spots?

Historic Snowstorm

2009-03-25T23:08:00.002-05:00

Northwest Oklahoma is the place to be Friday if you want to see the possibility of a top-ten all-time Oklahoma snowstorm. The computer models are spitting out unbelieveable snow totals, and they keep doing with each update. There is a very real possibility of 20 inches of snow near Woodward, with 3-4 foot snow drifts, and highways drifted shut.

As for OKC, we could have a few severe storms Thursday afternoon, followed by rain Friday morning, changing to snow Friday afternoon, and becoming heavy snow Friday evening until about midnight, before becoming light snow. Don't be surprised if we have some thundersnow Friday night. If you live southeast of Interstate 44, I would expect 1-3 inches as of right now. Northwest of Interstate 44, 2-4 inches of snow is possible. The snow should end by noon Saturday.

Spring will be quick to return next week with temperatures in the 60's and 70's. Early indications are that we will be entering a stormy period in a couple of weeks.

And You Thought Winter Was Over

2009-03-25T00:34:00.003-05:00

Well, Mother Nature has different plans. In fact, it is quite possible that some areas in Oklahoma record daily snowfall records this coming Friday night-Saturday, and that NW Oklahoma experiences blizzard conditions at times.

A powerful low pressure will move south from the Canadian Rockies during the day Thursday and the associated low pressure will track south across the Texas Panhandle, then east towards central Texas and NE across Arkansas. Due to the fact that the storm will be carrying cold air south with it, this is a classic setup for heavy snow in Oklahoma (granted, not usually this late in the year.) To the southeast of the low pressure in Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana, a major tornado outbreak is possible during the day Friday.

Here is what I expect right now for OKC: Rain and Thunderstorms during the day Friday. In fact, we could have a few storms that produce some small hail. As the day wears on temperatures will begin falling, and by 5PM the rain should change to snow, lasting through sunrise Saturday morning. North winds will be brutal, gusting upwards of 40MPH. There will be no travel problems becuase of the warm ground temperatures, but I expect 1-3 inches of snow on the grass and elevated surfaces for OKC proper. Northwest Oklahoma could see an incredible late-season snowstorm. Up to 12 inches of snow is possible up there, with snow drifts of up to 3 feet and near-blizzard conditions.

I will update this blog as the storm gets closer to refine predicted snow totals. They could go up or down, depending on the track of the low-pressure system.

Monday Threat Levels

2009-03-21T22:40:00.003-05:00

Alright, I'm going to give this a shot. This is my most reasonable prediction for Monday afternoon and night. As always, subject to change.

Tornado- Slight
High Wind- Moderate
Large Hail- Moderate

It appears the only thing preventing us from having a major tornado outbreak Monday night is lack of moisture......there simply won't be enough of it for many tornadoes, if any at all. Storms will first form about 50-75 miles west of OKC Monday afternoon, and for the first couple of hours after this there will be a window of opportunity for storms to produce tornadoes. I think most of them will brief and weak. As the storms approach OKC, they will probably consolidate into a line, and while the tornado threat will decrease, the threat of damaging straight winds will increase, mainly between 6 and 10PM.

Monday Possibilities

2009-03-20T01:58:00.003-05:00

Details are still foggy regarding what is going to happen on Monday. Like I have said, many things can change, and there is still uncertainty as to what will happen severe weather-wise. I think there are 3 likely scenarios:

1) Oklahoma receives severe weather, but it is more in the way of a squall line rather than supercells. While this would diminsh the tornado threat, the risk of straight-line wind damage would increase.

2) Due to lack of quality moisture in the atmosphere, we have individual storms and supercells, but they mainly produce hail and wind and not many tornadoes.

3) We have plenty of moisture and supercells, which means all heck would break loose.

Right now, in the order above, I would place the probabilities roughly at 30%-40%-30%......so I am slightly leaning towards #2, but all possibilities are still out there. For what it's worth, Gary England is forecasting significant severe weather, Mike Morgan reminded everyone about weather radios on the 10PM newscast, and Accuweather.com is predicting a major tornado outbreak. I feel there are too many things in question to go out on that limb right now......we shall see.

Update on Monday

2009-03-18T12:03:00.002-05:00

We are still 5 days away from the event I have mentioned in posts below, but I have seen enough to make a preliminary target area. North-central Texas, all of Western & Central Oklahoma, and South-central Kansas. In Oklahoma, this greatest threat would be in a box outlined by the cities of Woodward, Altus, Ardmore, Shawnee, and Tulsa, including the OKC metro. We can barely pinpoint severe weather for 2-3 days out, let alone 5 days out, so this is still very sketchy. But if model forecasts verify, this one could be the most significant Oklahoma tornado outbreak we've seen in the last few years.

Whoa

2009-03-17T19:45:00.004-05:00

I just glanced at the latest computer model forecasts for next week. I have to tell you, even this far out still, that the potential is there for a very large tornado outbreak somewhere on the Plains. By very large, I mean the possibility of over 50 tornado reports in one day, and right now the most likely day is Monday. Things can still change, however. I hope they do.

May-Like Severe Weather in March?

2009-03-16T15:24:00.002-05:00

It is not common to be fairly certain of a severe weather outbreak with tornadoes one week in advance, but this may be one of those situations. The only question is, in what part of the country will they be? Right now I am favoring Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for potential locations of this outbreak that could take place anytime between Sunday, March 22 through Wednesday, March 25.

This scenario is still many days out, and many things can change, but it looks like a substantial storm will be affecting the Plains during this timeframe. All severe weather types are possible, including some large tornadoes and heavy rainfall.

I will update the blog more as the storm comes closer and will detail whether there is a threat for OKC at that time.

Where Are the Sunspots?

2009-03-13T23:55:00.009-05:00

I ran across this story recently on the Web and in the news. Here's the jist of it. The Sun goes through solar cycles in a recurring pattern every 11 years, with a peak of activity, decreasing to a lull, and then back to a peak, and so on and so on. A minimum was predicted to occur back at the end of 2007 and early 2008, after which sunspot activity would increase. Well, needless to say the Sun has scientists baffled. For nearly a year the Sun has produced little to no sunspots, and this minimum in activity has lasted much longer than anyone expected.

How does this affect Earth? Well, during solar maximums there can be disruptions of cellular service and satellite transmissions, as well as more frequent Northern Lights. A more unknown affect on Earth is our climate. Some scientists argue that an increase in sunspots increases the amount of solar energy that the Sun emits, which in turn can cause Earth to warm. Decreases in sunspots, accordingly, would cause Earth to cool. Some argue that our recent period of "global warming" has been caused in part by increased solar activity.

An interesting thing to note is a period between the mid-1600's and early 1700's, which is known as the Little Ice Age. This period saw brutal, long winters and famine because of crop failures due to the extreme cold. At the same time as the Little Ice Age was the Maunder Minimum, which was a period in which the Sun produced little to no sunspots. Whether the two are related is up to debate, but it would be interesting to see what happened if the Sun unexpectedly entered a dormant period now as it did over 400 years ago.

Nate Said it Would

2009-03-12T16:11:00.001-05:00

Is it conceited to give myself props for mentioning the possibility of snow today nearly a week ago? (See March Madness post below)

Please advise.

Nice, ORDINARY Thunderstorms

2009-03-10T00:11:00.003-05:00

It was nice to get some much needed rainfall without hearing tornado sirens at the same time tonight. The metro got anywhere from one half to one inch of rain, which was great to water in the new plants in our flower beds and weed application on the lawn!

I really thought there would at least be a couple of tornadoes in Oklahoma tonight, but I think in the end we didn't have enough moisture or instability in the atmosphere. For a severe weather event you typically want cold air aloft, between 5,000 and 10,000 feet up. This helps air rise faster in a thunderstorm updraft, giving it more energy. This is a long way to say that the upper levels of the atmosphere were probably a little too warm to produce significant severe weather.

One of the reasons I love weather is the mystery it provides. For as much as we know, there is more we don't know. All we can do is forecast what we believe the most likely outcome will be. Kansas had tornadoes this past Saturday with conditions that appeared less favorable for tornadoes than the conditions we had here tonight. The storms definitely had small hook-echoes on them around 10PM, and in fact one tracked near the Edmond tornado alley from Mercy up towards downtown Edmond. If there had been more moisture and instability, this storm may have become a tornado producer.

Teaser for the next topic to write about.........my plans on going on a one-day storm chase this Spring with a reputable storm chasing tour company........

Severe Weather Risk Monday 3/9/09

2009-03-08T00:43:00.002-06:00

I am going to try something for this upcoming severe weather season. When I believe a noteworthy severe weather event is upcoming, I will post the breakdown of the different threats and a brief discussion. The three categories will be risks for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight-line winds. I will predict either a slight, moderate, or high risk for the OKC metro and surrounding counties. So here goes for Monday!

Tornado- Slight
Large Hail- Slight
High Wind- Slight

Moisture will be slow to return, and clouds may prevent maximum heating during the day, but strong shear and the approach of a cold front will probably trigger some thunderstorms during the afternoon, some of which may be supercells. Wind gusts up to 60MPH, hail to golfball size, and a brief tornado or two appear to be what is expected at this time, generally between Highway 81 and Interstate 35.

March Madness

2009-03-06T11:04:00.002-06:00

Forecast:

Friday- Highs in the 80's, high fire danger

Monday- Severe weather possible in Oklahoma, with tornadoes a possiblilty

Next Thursday/Friday- Much colder, snow possible in the northern half of the state.

No, I am not making this up. That is all for now.

Mythbusters!

2009-02-27T01:25:00.006-06:00

In response to Liz's request a while back, here are some common weather and tornado myths:

1) It can be too cold to snow......false!
-The colder the air temperature, the less snow that will probably fall, but this is due to the fact that cold air can not hold as much moisture as warm air. So if enough moisture can be squeezed out, it can snow at any temperature.

2) Skyscrapers help protect downtown areas from tornadoes.....false!
-We don't hear of downtowns being hit by tornadoes very often, but consider the miniscule land area that they cover in proportion to the whole country. That is why they aren't hit very often. However, four downtowns have been hit over the last ten years: Fort Worth, Nashville, Salt Lake City, and Atlanta. I think it may be possible that a weak tornado could be disturbed by tall buildings. However, I don't think a mile-wide tornado that extends six miles vertically in a thunderstorm would care if a skyscraper was in the way. By the way, I believe the downtown area of Oklahoma City is long overdue for a tornado.

3) Violent tornadoes are confined to "tornado alley"........false!
-Here is a list of F5 tornadoes outside of "tornado alley"
Flint, Michigan, 1953
Fargo, North Dakota, 1957
Tracy, Minnesota, 1968
Wheatland, Pennsylvania, 1985
Elie, Manitoba, Canada, 2007

4) An overpass is a better tornado shelter than a ditch.......false!
-The higher you are above ground, the stronger the wind. So why would you go up an embankment inside a virtual wind tunnel to get away from tornadic winds? Tornadic winds are greatly diminished right at ground-level, so you are much better off to lie in a ditch. Many deaths and life-altering injuries on May 3, 1999 occurred underneath overpasses.

5) Oklahoma is the most tornado-prone state in the U.S.......true and false!
-Technically, Florida has more tornadoes per square mile, but they are mainly the weak variety. Also, while Oklahoma statistically has more significant tornadoes per square mile than any other state, we are really only using 50 years of data out of thousands of years that tornadoes have been occurring here. There are trends that show tornado alley "shifts" every once in a while. Sometimes the S.E. U.S. seems to get more tornado outbreaks over a multi-year timespan. Last year Kansas set a record for most tornadoes recorded in that state in one year, while Oklahoma had an average year. (Disclaimer: Our house has been within one mile of two tornadoes the past two years. I think we have a mini-tornado alley near our house)

Not a Forecast, But a Gut Feeling

2009-02-19T12:25:00.003-06:00

It appears the first couple of weeks of March will be active with severe weather, possibly affecting Oklahoma, Texas, and points east. In fact, the weather pattern shaping up for Spring is remarkably similar to last year. Last year we had many dry strecthes during the Spring, but they were intermingled with tornado outbreaks, which mainly spared Oklahoma (except for Picher) and hit Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri particularly hard. We would be extremely lucky to escape the major tornado outbreaks again this year. Gary England should probably start building up his sleep reserves right now......

Random Thoughts......OKC Tornado History

2009-02-13T19:42:00.004-06:00

Here is a dual-purpose blog. First I would like to share a few thoughts from the Edmond/Lone Grove tornado outbreak. Second, I ran across an article from the National Weather Service accounting for OKC tornado history since 1890 that I would like to share. I found it pretty interesting.

-First off, I saw my first "real" rotation in a supercell thunderstorm from the 2nd floor of my office, looking 2 miles to my west at the first tornado touchdown on NW Expressway and Rockwell. This wasn't weenie circulation; I could see the entire base of the storm rotating, and it was illuminated with a bright white coloring in the clouds from the hail that was falling. I could not see a tornado beause of the rain. It was amazing.

-As crazy as this sounds, we are fortunate that the storms trained over the same areas for a couple of hours. Unless, of course, you were on the train route. The first storm that produced the F2 tornado in Edmond used a lot of available energy in the atmosphere around the locations it passed, so the subsequent storms had less fuel to work with. They were rotating, but did not put down tornadoes. If the next 2-3 storms in the line had each been progressively further east, I strongly believe that each would have produced tornadoes, possibly stronger than the first one. Thank goodness that disaster didn't happen.

-For as much as we know about the weather, we know twice as little. The same set of conditions that transpired Tuesday could come together again, but produce no tornadoes. After the storms became a line that evening, it appeared the tornado threat was over. Then a lone shower popped up in front of the main line in Texas, became a lone, renegade storm, and crossed the Red River to put down an F4 tornado in Lone Grove. Within an hour the line had swallowed the storm, ending the tornado threat for good.

The following is a look at a few historical OKC tornadoes. 125 tornadoes have struck within city limits since 1890. 8 of these were rated F4, and only 1 F5 (we all know which one that was). I have selected some noteworthy ones. Remember, wherever you live in OKC you pretty much are at the same risk as anyone else......a tornado in the past moving over your area or not moving over your area means nothing when it comes to future risk. If you do the math, only 5% of OKC tornadoes have been violent.

1)Moore
April 25, 1893, 3:30PM
F-4
31 deaths

At times, this tornado was reported to have been over 1.25 miles wide. It closely paralled the track of the May 3, 1999 and May 8, 2003 tornadoes.

2)April 20, 1912, 3:45PM
F-4
Large, elephant trunk that could be seen from downtown

The approximate path of this tornado was from 3 miles west of Yukon, to Memorial & Penn, to 4 miles east of Edmond. A school near Yukon was leveled 15 minutes after the students were let out for the day.

3)Notice the Odd Date & Time....
Bethany
November 19, 1930, 9:30AM
F-4
23 deaths

One-fourth of Bethany was damaged or destroyed. The path was along the eastern edge of town, and was about 110 yards wide. It moved NNE, probably crossing the intersection of 23rd and Rockwell.

4)SW OKC
June 12, 1942, 8:41PM
F-4
35 deaths

Most deadly OKC tornado until May 3, 1999. Most damage was between SW 27th and 29th between Portland and Independence. Path width was 500 yards.

5)April 30, 1970, 1:00AM
F-2

This tornado cut a path 47 miles long and up to one-half mile wide. It went through the center of OKC, crossing the I-40/I-44 interchange and what is currently I-235 near 36th Street. 1,473 homes, 293 businesses, 8 schools, 12 churches, and 300 signs were damaged. Amazingly, there were no fatalities.

6)Extreme NW OKC
April 30, 1978, 6:20PM
F-4

Moved from just south of Piedmont to near Covell/Coffee Creek and Portland. Large tornado that was at least a mile wide at times. Oil storage tanks, cars, and stock feeders were lifted and carried up to a half-mile.

7)May 8, 1986, 6:12PM
F-3

Moved from 150th & Western and moved NNE, then NE, then east towards Edmond. The Fairfax addition was hardest hit.

8)October 2, 1986, 9:07AM
F-1

This tornado actually formed from the remnants of a hurricane. It started near May and Wilshire and ended on Hefner Road between May and Penn.

Unbelievable February Day......Edmond & Lone Grove

2009-02-10T21:47:00.004-06:00

Wow. I am in a somber mood right now because it appears the path of the tornado that damaged NW Expressway and Rockwell and also North Edmond appears to have tracked almost directly over our housing addition. It just so happens the tornado touched down a couple of miles after passing us. We were very lucky. We are thankful that everyone is OK that was affected, and that we are OK.

After looking at the video, I believe there is some EF-3 damage in Edmond. This would be the strongest tornado to hit Edmond since 1986. It would also be only the second F-3 tornado in February in Oklahoma history.

On a sad note, please pray for the people of Lone Grove, just outside of Ardmore. It appears a large tornado, possibly up to 3/4 of a mile-wide, made a direct hit on the community. Also, there are reports the tornado sirens did not sound. I think there is going to be some sad news coming out of there.

Dangerous Severe Weather

2009-02-10T00:25:00.002-06:00

If you have friends or family that live in eastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, or southern Arkansas, you may want to give them a heads-up that some significant severe weather is possible later this afternoon and tonight. It appears possible that these areas could have a cluster of several tornadoes, some of which could be large. Also, a squall line will develop and race across Oklahoma and Texas later in the evening, and the strength of the upper-level wind fields suggest destructive winds of up to 80MPH will be possible as the line races through. As of now, OKC is sitting right on the edge of the threat area. Storms may develop overhead in the early evening, then quickly strengthen as they move east of here. Hopefully we will dodge this bullet.

I have a feeling we could see between 10-20 tornadoes in the highest threat areas that I mentioned above. I will post an update today around Noon.

Stay Tuned....

2009-02-09T01:00:00.003-06:00

Tuesday evening is shaping up as possibly the first tornado outbreak of 2009. We're talking temperatures in the 70's, strong moisture return from the SE, and a strong storm system producing SW Jet Stream winds close to 90MPH by Tuesday evening! Right now the area of greatest concern is north-central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. However, the computer models have been trending towards the system moving out slower, which in turn would move the threat area back further west. We should know more about the threat area later today. I do have to say I have a pretty good feeling that there will be tornadoes in the state Tuesday night. We'll just have to see exactly where.

Right now OKC is looking at the possibility of some storms Tuesday night, which could produce hail and strong wind, but as of now I'll say the tornado threat will remain east of here. This could definitely change, however.

Jessica Asked.......

2009-02-07T09:48:00.002-06:00

Give your prediction on the kind of spring and summer we'll have. Dry? hot? Rainy?

Here is what my best guesstimate is for Spring and Summer:

The rest of February will be fairly stormy with 5-6 storms traversing (I like that word) across the Plains. Some severe weather will be possible, but the main benefit will be repeated chances of rain. I really don't see much snow in store for us.

We'll probably get one more shot of cold air in early March before Spring starts setting in. If we get no more snow it will be one of the least snowiest Winters in Oklahoma City history.

For Spring as a whole (March-May), I think we might be a tad drier and a tad warmer than normal. La Nina has kicked in over the Pacific, which tends to give us drier weather. However, even though we may get fewer storms, they may be more potent. The event of May 3, 1999 occurred during a La Nina year. Don't worry, May 3 might have been a once in a lifetime event. However, I will predict at least one larger than normal tornado outbreak during April or May.

Even though Summer is a ways out, I will go with slightly drier and slightly warmer than normal.

By the way, my prediction for Winter was colder and drier than normal. So far the drier than normal has been correct, but temperatures have been slightly above normal so far.

Liz, you're next!

Reader's Choice

2009-02-05T00:03:00.002-06:00

OK, I submit a challenge to the 9 people that read my blog on a regular basis.........I need some ideas for posts. What are some topics you would like for me to write about? Anything goes......anything that is family friendly, that is.

We should get some good, soaking rain this Sunday night through Monday morning. In fact, there is even a chance of some severe weather Sunday night, with the main risks being hail and damaging winds. Hopefully we can put a dent in the drought that is beginning to take hold across the state.

Change is in the Air.....

2009-02-02T17:11:00.003-06:00

I am definitely looking forward to the end of this week. How about 68 on Thursday and Friday! Spring is definitely my favorite season and I can't wait for it to be here, but I know better than to think Winter is over. In fact, some of the heaviest snowfalls in Oklahoma have come during the month of March, so we've got another couple of months before we can kiss goodbye to Winter.

The change that is in the air is going to be a weather pattern change that will bring more storms and moisture our way this weekend and the next week or so after that. This is a good thing considering how dry it is starting to get around here. It looks like enough warm air and humidity will be here Sunday and Monday for some storms, maybe even some low-end severe weather. After that it appears we may have 2-3 more storms the next week to bring some much needed rain. As of now I don't think snow is in the picture, it will feel more like early April than February!

We Got Lucky

2009-01-30T23:19:00.016-06:00

Oklahoma City got some ice and sleet this past week that definitely made the roads bad and caused a lot of closings. However, areas from far eastern Oklahoma through Arkansas and Kentucky got hammered with an epic ice storm. Some areas received 1-2 inches of solid glaze ice, and a total of 1 million people were without power for a time, and many of those are still without power.

I have always been fascinated by ice storms, in particular freezing rain. It is simply amazing to me that plain rain falling into sub-freezing temperatures can create the beauty and destruction that it does. I ran across the following pictures on a weather blog that I read often and received permission from the author, Brian Emfinger, to post them here. His website is http://www.realclearwx.com/. For my money, these are the most amazing ice storm pictures I have ever seen. Keep in mind that in some of the mountainous areas of NW Arkansas, over 90% of the trees have been snapped over or topped-off. These areas may not look the same for another decade.

The following picture was taken in the mountains near Pouteau. Not Canada. Oklahoma.
Notice in the next picture the ice at higher levels and not so much ice in the valley. The rain had time to freeze into sleet at lower levels before hitting the ground, but on the tops of mountains the rain didn't have enough time to freeze into pellets before hitting the trees, so the rain froze onto the trees.

Friendly Public Service Announcement

2009-01-26T00:51:00.002-06:00

If you will be driving Monday afternoon/evening and/or Tuesday morning, be EXTREMELY careful. Temperatures have been at or below freezing for a while, and are bottoming out in the lower 20's right now. Any rain that falls tomorrow will freeze INSTANTLY on surfaces since everything outside is chilled. Don't be the yahoo who thinks they can go 40MPH becuase they have 4-wheel drive.......

Ice Forecast

2009-01-25T11:11:00.003-06:00

OK, after looking at everything this morning, I am going to forecast a total of a quarter of an inch of ice accumulation when all is said and done Wednesday. This is enough to make the roads bad, cause some power outages to areas that lose power easily, but this will not be to the extent of last year's storm. I still feel that way. Also, some of the freezing rain will probably mix with sleet at times, making the glaze ice a little less. The worst and heaviest of the precipitation will be from sunset Monday evening through sunrise Tuesday morning.

Updates later if things change.

Ice Storm Update

2009-01-24T22:58:00.002-06:00

Here's the latest on my thinking......we are going to be below freezing from Monday morning all the way through Wednesday morning, which isn't good. However, I think the heaviest freezing rain will fall SE of OKC, while OKC gets a mix of freezing rain and sleet at times. I will say we get a quarter of an inch of ice total, which definitely will make driving dangerous, and may cause some branches to come down and minor power interruptions, but not to the extent of last year's ice storm. This is still subject to change, so I'll post again tomorrow on the latest.

Uh Oh.....Another Crippling Ice Storm?

2009-01-24T11:34:00.002-06:00

You may have seen some local forecasts the past few days mentioning the chance of a bit of freezing rain on Monday....enough to cause travel problems but not enough for much beyond that.

Well, after looking at the National Weather Service website Saturday morning, I have to say that we may be in store for something much worse from Monday all the way through possibly Thursday. The tough part of the forecast is that there are so many variables to try to predict:

1) How much moisture will be available, considering how dry it has been lately?
2) How long will temperatures be below freezing? How long will the arctic air hold on?
3) Will the heaviest rain fall in parts of the state that are above freezing or below freezing?

Right now, it looks like the majority of precipitation will fall as freezing rain. Not good. When you hear pinging sounds on the windows, that is sleet, which is much better than plain rain when it is below freezing. We may have freezing drizzle during the day Monday, but the heaviest rain will probably start Monday night into Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, some models have freezing rain falling through Wednesday.

How much freezing rain? The two main computer models have differing opinions. One model says between 0.25 and 0.75 inches of rain, which would cause travel problems and maybe a few power problems, but nothing like last year. The other model shows Armageddon, with between 1 and 2 inches of FREEZING rain. This would be another crippling ice storm like what we had last winter. Right now I am siding (wishcasting) with the 0.25-0.75 inch forecast, but I will post an update later if my thinking changes.

Really, Really, Really, Really Cold

2009-01-09T10:22:00.003-06:00

Just got home from work and am now getting ready for a baby tonight! So I thought one more Nateorology post before Anna's arrival would suffice.

Prediction: Either next Thursday night or Friday night, the official low in OKC will be near zero, like I said would happen at least once this winter in my earlier Winter forecast. A huge arctic airmass is going to dislodge from Alaska and Canada and head south. It is going to be brutally cold. Welcome home, I mean Welcome to Oklahoma, Brandon!

Day After Christmas Severe Weather

2008-12-24T17:50:00.003-06:00

After being in the 20's recently, expect 60's on Christmas Day and then possibly 70 on Friday! It will feel like March as humid air streams across Oklahoma ahead of the next cold front. That cold front could trigger some thunderstorms late Friday and Friday night, with some severe weather possible across Eastern Oklahoma. Don't be surprised if a Tornado Watch is issued for Eastern Oklahoma the day after Christmas. Hey, it's Oklahoma. Why are you shocked?

By the way, the entire country of Canada is experiencing a White Christmas. This is the first time that has happened since 1971! So much for global warming! Don't get me started on that subject........

POTENTIAL Winter Storm.....

2008-11-22T11:57:00.002-06:00

Some of the latest model forecasts show a huge pool of arctic air developing in Alaska and Northern Canada, then diving south during the first week of December, sometime on or after 12/2. This cold air could be followed by a potential winter storm. It is way too early to know specific details and dates, but stay tuned.......

Winter Forecast

2008-10-17T22:23:00.003-05:00

Here goes! This forecast is based on gut feeling, looking at past trends, what has happened so far this year, and El Nino-La Nina. Last year I predicted a warmer than average winter and near average precipitation. It turned out to be an average winter temperature-wise. We had above average precipitation.

So far this year, the U.S. has received near average or below average temperatures. In fact, global temperatures have fallen slightly the past couple of years. Also, El Nino AND La Nina are both absent right now, so neither will have that great of an effect.

I am going to predict a colder than average and drier than average winter. We can expect more frequent intrusions of arctic air than in the past few winters. In fact, I'll make a BOLD prediction that we will see a below-zero temperature reading in Oklahoma City for the first time in over a decade.

I don't think we will see an ice storm as crippling as the one we had last year. Snowfall will be around average, so we can expect about 10 inches of snow for the whole winter.

There you go. Print this out and laugh at me come Spring.

Warning: RANT

2008-09-11T23:38:00.002-05:00

I just don't understand.

If you were told one morning that there was a 10% chance that your house would be hit by a tornado and you would be killed later that day, would you stay home and hope for the 9 out of 10? To me, this is basically what the people who refuse to leave Galveston Island are saying that are in MANDATORY evacuation zones.

I would not be playing Russian Roulette with a possible 20 foot storm surge that could rival that of Katrina's due to the sheer size of this hurricane. Yes, previous storms have veered away and missed you. Yes, this one could also miss you. Unfortunately, if the 10% does happen, by the time you realize it, it is too late. If you try to fight water, water will always win. Period.

Sorry to sound a little harsh. But it is frustrating to have the technology to warn those that could be affected, but still have a pit in the stomach feeling that a worst-case scenario (10% odds) with this storm could claim hundreds of lives.

Ike Likes Texas.....and Oklahoma

2008-09-09T23:27:00.007-05:00

Before I continue, check out this video of Ike when it hit Cuba:
http://video.ap.org/v/default.aspx?f=NYNYD&g=2e4a6b6b-ea8c-4115-947a-81266239cadd&mk=en-ap&fg=svip_homepage_copy

Ike is rapidly strengthening after leaving Cuba, and it is probably going to become a monster in the Gulf of Mexico. I think it will strengthen to a borderline Category 3-Category 4 hurricane by Thursday with max winds near 130MPH. It will make landfall Friday night somewhere near Galveston. Not only will Ike be strong, but it will also be very large. Currently, the Tropical Storm-force winds (40-74MPH) have a radius of 230 miles around the center of the storm! By the time it makes landfall, Hurricane force and Tropical Storm force winds could extend out 300 miles from the center, which would affect the entire Texas coast, not just the point where the center makes landfall.

The following is my take on how Ike will affect our weather later this week and this weekend.

Disclaimer: The following scenario is subject to change, but this is what the last 3 model runs have shown for the next few days.......

1) A swath of 4-7 inches of rain across the I-44 corridor, with a few isolated locations near 10 inches from Thursday through Sunday.

2) The center of Ike will head north just east of I-35 Saturday night and Sunday, creating winds gusting to as high as 40-50MPH.

3) Isolated tornadoes possible Saturday night and Sunday from I-35 east.

I'll update this info as things become more clear over the next few days.

Hype With Ike

2008-09-08T23:53:00.005-05:00

You might hear some local TV meteorologists sounding the alarm over the next few days about the remnants of Ike moving through Oklahoma late this weekend, possibly causing significant flooding. We all know that some local guys can tend to "overhype" weather events on occassion. However, if the remnants of a hurricane are forecasted to move overhead, I would do the same thing if I were the forecaster. Here is why: Inland Flooding from heavy rain is the number one killer from hurricanes. Not storm surge at the coast. Not high winds. The most deaths occur inland, away from the coast, becuase of the rain that results inland.

We are still too far away to know if Ike will affect us, but if it happens, it's not something to be taken lightly.

Here are the top five rainfalls caused by tropical systems in Oklahoma history:

1) 18.71 inches from Norma, 1981 in Kingston

2) 16.95 inches from Tico, 1983 in Chickasha

3) 12.81 inches from Erin, 2007 in Eakly

4) 12.07 inches from Dean, 1995 at Great Salt Plains Lake

5) 11.02 inches from Frances, 1998 in Valliant

Bad

2008-08-28T23:57:00.002-05:00

The residents of the Gulf Coast need our thoughts and prayers. Especially those that live between Houston and New Orleans. All signs are pointing towards a potentially devastating hurricane making landfall in the U.S. sometime Tuesday afternoon or night. Gustav has the potential to "bomb out" (meteorological meaning-rapidly intensify) Friday and Saturday. Currently it is a Tropical Storm, but the potential is there for it to become a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday and potentially a Category 4 storm by Monday. Unfortunately, the waters of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico right now are about as warm as bathwater, and the winds in the upper-levels of the atmosphere will be light. There appears to be nothing to stop Gustav from becoming a monster.

There is also a chance that Gustav could affect our weather by next Wednesday or Thursday. If by chance the remnants make it our way we could see flooding rainfall and a few isolated tornadoes.

Also of note: Tropical Storm Hanna has formed east of the Bahamas. This storm also has the potential to impact the U.S. next week, possibly as a major hurricane as well.

Hurricane Gustav

2008-08-26T02:10:00.003-05:00

It's late and I'm finally done doing homework. Checked out how newly formed Gustav is doing. Needless to say, it went from Tropical Depression to Hurricane in less than 24 hours. Model projections look grim at this point. Before you read the following bullet-points, remember that forecasting a hurricane past 3 or 4 days in advance is about as accurate as a Ouija board.

-Gustav looks like it will stay south of Cuba, and move closer to the Mexican Yucatan peninsula.

-Gustav could enter the Gulf of Mexico as a potentially devastating Category 4 hurricane.

-The mere presence of a hurricane of this magnitude will cause oil prices to skyrocket. Oil currently sits at $110/barrel. $130/barrel would not be out of the question if the above scenario takes place.

-Currently, any city that lies on the Gulf of Mexico is at risk. It is too early to estimate a location of landfall.

Be ready to get your fill of Gustav.

Oklahoma Weather History.....August 18 (continued)

2008-08-18T12:32:00.002-05:00

The following is the aftermath of the storm I posted about yesterday in the entry below. It must have been some sight to say the least. Again this is from the National Weather Service website.

Residents who were in the path of the 1994 Lahoma storm, awoke on this morning to find a strange world. The devastating wind and hail storm on the previous day had stripped nearly every tree of leaves in the Lahoma and Drummond areas. That, along with plowed fields from harvested wheat, left the August landscape looking eerily more like mid winter. Hail was still on the ground in some protected areas around Lahoma on the afternoon of the 18th, more than 24 hours after the storm.

Oklahoma Weather History.....August 17

2008-08-17T12:26:00.002-05:00

I ran across this on the National Weather Service website. Incredible!

One of the most memorable severe thunderstorms in recent history struck north-central and central Oklahoma on August 17, 1994. The communities of Lahoma and Drummond suffered the most damage from an unusually intense supercell storm, that moved south into Oklahoma near Manchester, and continued across Goltry, Lahoma, Drummond, Kingfisher, and Okarche. Widespread severe damage occurred to between 500 and 800 permanent homes and businesses, and between 80 and 120 mobile homes, all the result of very large hail driven by hurricane-force winds. Peak wind gusts in Lahoma were measured at 113 MPH, before the wind equipment gave out. Hail reached golf ball to baseball size along the entire storm track. One hailstone that fell between Kingfisher and Okarche was said to look like a football. Several people were treated for hypothermia in the Lahoma area as a result of the large volume of hail, as air temperatures fell from near 100 degrees, down into the lower 50s.

Tropical Storm Fay....Major Hurricane Next Week?

2008-08-16T00:33:00.002-05:00

The newest Tropical Storm has formed today over the island of Haiti & the Dominican Republic. It is forecasted to cross over central or western Cuba over the next couple of days, and then curve to the north-northwest towards the Florida panhandle the middle of next week. I have a feeling this is going to become a newsmaker, because once Fay crosses Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, the waters are extremely warm, and most importantly, the winds are very light. We could be looking at our first Category 3 or higher hurricane next week, affecting the U.S.

Stay Tuned.

Tropical Storm Dolly

2008-07-22T09:06:00.001-05:00

Dolly? Seriously? Even when it becomes a hurricane, who is going to evacuate from Hurricane Dolly? Look out, big bad Dolly means business!

They really should consult me before they name hurricanes.

An Open Letter To Mother Nature

2008-06-12T10:32:00.002-05:00

Dear Mother Nature-

As much as I am fascinated by severe weather and tornadoes, can this severe weather season please be over? We started back in February with the Super Tuesday outbreak that killed over 50 people in the Southeast, making it the deadliest U.S. outbreak since 1985. Then, even though Oklahoma has escaped the worst this year, the city of Picher's relocation project was tragically hurried along. An EF-5 tornado nearly wiped an Iowa town off the map. If that isn't enough, now four Boy Scouts, ages between 13 and 14, were killed in a tornado in Iowa yesterday, along with two other people in Kansas. The city of Manhattan took a direct hit, with K-State University suffering damage. Also, Iowa State University is suffering flood damage from floods that are approaching once in every 500 year levels in Iowa.

Enough is enough. Please stop.

Nathan

Why You Should Take Tornado Warnings Seriously: Exhibit A

2008-06-03T23:01:00.006-05:00

The following link takes you to a video from a bank surveillance camera during the Parkersburg, Iowa EF-5 tornado. The few seconds of pitch black before the tornado hits is really eerie.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=886_1212464033

Tornado Outbreak Recap....More on the Horizon

2008-05-31T09:59:00.006-05:00

This photo (courtesy of the National Weather Service) is from the tornado that hit Parkersburg, Iowa last Sunday, May 25th. It has been rated as an EF-5, the first since Greensburg last year and the first in Iowa in 30 years. The entire first floor is gone, and the basement has been left exposed. Unfortunately, this tornado has now raised the number of tornado deaths this year to over 100, which is the highest in a decade. The past week has seen a major tornado outbreak. 269 tornadoes have touched down between 5/22 and 5/30 in every Great Plains state from Mexico to the Canadian border. Kansas has been the hardest hit state with nearly 100 tornadoes there alone.

Unfortunately tornado season doesn't want to die yet. In fact, at least for Oklahoma, the worst may be yet to come. A very powerful storm for June standards will be making it's presence known between next Wednesday and next Friday, 6/4-6/6. Right now it appears as though the area from the Red River on north to the Great Lakes has the potential to see a widespread and very significant tornado outbreak, including more strong/violent and long-tracked tornadoes. This is definitely a storm to watch closely over the next few days.

Colorado/Kansas Tornadoes.....and a RANT

2008-05-22T23:48:00.003-05:00

First I want to start off by saying that there were 50 tornado reports today, mainly in Western Kansas. Some large tornadoes, as a matter of fact. From the reports I have seen so far no towns were hit, thank goodness that area of Kansas is very rural. As for the video of the very large tornado north of Denver.....wow. From what I have seen it looks like EF-3 damage. You would have thought F-5 after seeing that video, but the size of tornadoes doesn't always coorelate to how strong they are. Generally the larger the tornado the stronger it is, but not always. In any case, the tornado was massive. In the weather world we call it a wedge tornado.

What was amazing to me is that the temperature was only 58 degrees as the tornado was occuring! There had to have been incredible wind shear to produce that tornado with a temperature that low. It just goes to show how much we still don't know about tornado formation.

I will post a forecast for Friday and the weekend on Friday. I think the tornado outbreak will continue in Kansas and Nebraska.

I have a rant to post about some irresponsible weather coverage I saw tonight. I don't have a degree or TV experience, but this is just my opinion. A local TV guy showed footage of a brief tornado outside of the small town of Hammon in Western Oklahoma. Hint: it wasn't Gary England or Rick Mitchell. To me it appeared the tornado lifted a minute or so later. TV guy goes to radar and starts commenting on a "donut hole" that he sees on radar. He then goes on to state that it is a mile wide, and this is an indication that there is a large tornado moving directly toward Hammon. He did not confirm this with storm tracker reports either. How would you have felt if a TV meteorologist had claimed a mile-wide tornado was moving toward your hometown, and it was just a "false alarm"?

To be honest it made me angry. Radar is a helpful tool, but only in rare situations can you actually pinpoint a tornadic circulation on it. If you are going to claim a mile-wide tornado is on the ground, you better be *darn* sure it is there by confirming with your spotters. This kind of reporting is what gives meteorologists a bad rap about blowing things out of proportion. Thank you to the other 2 stations for keeping your sense of sanity. As for the other station, thank you for your ridiculous Broadway production.

Thursday Update

2008-05-21T12:34:00.003-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk of severe weather for Western & Central Kansas and extreme NW Oklahoma. This area of Kansas has a threat for a few strong and long-lived tornadoes Thursday afternoon and evening. In the rest of Western & Central Oklahoma there is a slight risk of severe weather, but don't be fooled by the term "slight". Any storm that develops in the state tomorrow afternoon and evening has the potential to produce a significant tornado, in my opinion.

Later this afternoon and evening, and especially Thursday morning, you should feel the difference in the air as compared to what the air feels like as of Wednesday at Noon. Very humid air that is now residing over south Texas and the Gulf of Mexico is going to flood the state tonight. This air is the key ingredient for producing significant severe weather.

Bottom line: I would keep informed of weather conditions Thursday afternoon and evening....(it's hard NOT to be informed with our TV weathermen). I can't tell you where and exactly when, but my gut tells me something significant is going to happen tomorrow.

Memorial Weekend Tornado Outbreak

2008-05-19T12:05:00.002-05:00

It is looking more and more evident that a violent tornado outbreak will occur this Thursday through Sunday, but fortunately the area of concern is west of OKC. The affected areas are looking likely to be western Nebraska, western Kansas, and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Unfortunately for these areas, the storm is going to stall-out and produce repeated rounds of very severe weather over the same areas over multiple days. If OKC gets any severe weather I would say it is more likely to be around Sunday and Memorial Day, and I don't think it will be a tornado outbreak like further west.

Like always this can change. If it does I'll post an update.

Update For Next Week

2008-05-16T12:20:00.002-05:00

WOW......

There are two main computer models that are used to forecast in the medium to long-term. Both of them are in relatively good agreement, which is a rare thing 7 days in advance. The time period beginning next Thursday and then lasting for about a week could rival the 2003 tornado outbreak sequence of May 4-10, which collectively produced 401 tornadoes across the country. As of right now, the following states are at greatest risk, in my opinion: Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, South Dakota, and yes, Oklahoma. This is going out on a limb, but I would expect the Storm Prediction Center to issue 1 or 2 rare high-risks somewhere in the above mentioned areas, possibly beginning as early as Thursday, May 22.

As we know, things can definitely change. But the fact that one of these models has been consistent in showing this pattern developing for almost a week now has me feeling confident in making the above predictions. I just hope all of the tornadoes stay out in open fields, because my gut tells me there is going to be a lot of them.

Severe Weather Ahead

2008-05-14T23:36:00.003-05:00

I thought the severe weather potential next week deserved a post. A pretty nasty looking storm is showing up for later next week into next weekend (May 22nd-May 26th). The computer models have been pretty consistent in showing this developing, so even though it is over a week away, I am starting to feel fairly confident that a tornado outbreak will occur on the Plains during this timeframe. Locations/specifics are still way to early to pin down, but this situation looks like a classic Oklahoma severe weather event, instead of the surprise spin-up mini-tornadoes we have been getting here in the city the past couple of months.

Also, I haven't blogged since the outbreak this past Saturday that included the tornado in Picher. Very sad, especially considering the plight of the town regardless of the tornado. The tornado was rated EF-4, the first tornado in Eastern Oklahoma rated that high since 1993. The tornado hit really close to home for a friend of ours, and she recently blogged about it.

The width of the tornado was a mile at it's widest, and the path length was an unbelievable 76 miles. To put that in perspective, no tornado on May 3, 1999 had a path length that long. One tornado being on the ground for that long is extremely rare. The norm is for a supercell to create a "family" of tornadoes, where one tornado dissipates, and then the storm re-organizes and a while later puts down a new tornado, and so on.

May 3, 1999

2008-05-02T21:46:00.006-05:00

It's hard to believe that we're at the 9th anniversary of the largest tornado outbreak in Oklahoma history. My memories are still vivid from that day. I remember leaving school that afternoon and feeling how hot and humid it was outside. The sky looked and felt angry. If you have lived in Oklahoma a while, you know that feeling. I had to work that night (and yes, I wish I would have called in sick to watch the live coverage), but before I left for work I was watching Gary England showing the first tornado touchdown of the day, SW of Chickasha. I expected the tornado to be on the ground for a minute or so and then lift, as most tornadoes do. As we all know, these weren't going to be like "most tornadoes." Before I left for work I turned to my dad and said, "tonight is going to be a bad night." Little did I know how bad it would turn out to be.

I still remember how green the sky turned later that night. I remember calling my parents to find out how many different tornadoes there were at any given time and if there were any headed towards us. I also remember the guilt I felt for being excited about tornadoes after finding out how bad the destruction was.

I have listed a few facts and other things you may not know about May 3, 1999. Also, share any memories you have from that day, if you would like.

-A total of 70 tornadoes were reported that day, a majority of them from 3 different supercell thunderstorms.

-The most "infamous" tornado of the day was the one that struck Moore. However, after dark, a tornado that struck Mulhall (just north of Guthrie) was possibly just as intense, IF NOT more intense, than the Moore tornado. Since no structures were hit and the tornado was in open country at its' peak, we will never know. Radar and a few storm spotters have placed estimates that the circulation itself was possibly over 2 miles wide at times!

-It was not evident until later in the afternoon that a tornado outbreak was imminent. In fact, only a slight risk of severe weather was forecast the morning of May 3rd. It was upgraded to a moderate risk around noon, and a high risk around 3PM.

-The events of that day finally put to rest a popular misconception....that highway overpasses are a safe place to seek shelter. NEVER, EVER, WHATSOEVER seek shelter from a tornado under an overpass. You might as well stand in a wind tunnel with debris thrown in it.

-For the first time in National Weather Service history, a "Tornado Emergency" was issued. National Weather Service forecasters felt that the term "Tornado Warning" was not enough for the situation. Since then, Tornado Emergencies have been issued only when a large tornado is headed directly for a population center.....eg. Greensburg. Below is the original text for the OKC "Tornado Emergency"

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT MON MAY 3 1999

...TORNADO EMERGENCY IN SOUTH OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA...

AT 657 PM CDT...A LARGE TORNADO WAS MOVING ALONG INTERSTATE 44 WEST OF NEWCASTLE. ON ITS PRESENT PATH...THIS LARGE DAMAGING TORNADO WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA BETWEEN 715 PM AND 730 PM. PERSONS IN MOORE AND SOUTH OKLAHOMA CITY SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS! THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

The Joys of Severe Weather Forecasting

2008-04-16T22:04:00.003-05:00

The weather has been rather tame lately, so there hasn't been too much to talk about. What follows are random thoughts about weather forecasting......

There have been a couple of "busts" over the past few weeks with regards to severe weather forecasts. I remember the night of the NCAA National Championship many forecasters thought we were in for a substantial outbreak of severe weather. I had bought into the forecast as well. Needless to say, it didn't pan out as expected. Yes, we had a storm with hail that moved through North OKC that night, but that was only one of a few severe storms in the state that day, and none were even close to producing tornadoes. Now for the reason why.....

Lack of moisture. That's it. That's all. Most of the computers had predicted the high-moisture, high-octane air that was sitting over south Texas to surge north into Oklahoma during the evening, providing the last ingredient needed for tornadoes. The more moisture that there is in the air, the closer to ground-level that clouds can form, and the easier it is for storms to rotate closer to the ground. I honestly believe that if more moisture HAD been in place that night, the results would have been different. The storm that moved through OKC had a well-defined hook echo, but this "hook" was located a few thousand feet above ground level, so it was never a threat to tornado. Had that circulation been at ground level, I believe the result COULD have been a large tornado.

The forecasters did the right thing. The potential was there for dangerous weather that night. When the elements are coming together for an outbreak, you better err on the side of caution, because failing to do so could produce some undesirable consequences.

Monday Update

2008-04-07T01:32:00.002-05:00

Just got done studying for my Intermediate Accounting test tomorrow, but before I go to bed here are my thoughts for Monday......

We have ALMOST all ingredients in place for a fairly nasty severe weather event Monday night. The one thing that will be lacking the most is moisture. Even if moisture ends up being a little low, I expect a few supercells to form in western Oklahoma between 5 and 7PM. The storms will probably be along a line from Alva to Clinton to Altus. Wind shear will be more than adequate for the storms to acquire rotation. They will move in an easterly direction at about 25 to 30MPH, putting them at the Highway 81 corridor around 9PM and possibly the I-35 corridor between 10:00 and 11:00. The storms will be capable of very large hail and isolated tornadoes, especially in the 9:00 to 11:00 timeframe, which is when surface winds will increase out of the SE, feeding the storm's inflow.

I will add that we should be thankful that moisture isn't going to be any higher than it already is going to be on Monday. If that were the case, I would be talking about the potential for strong/possibly violent tornadoes Monday night.

Monday Severe Weather

2008-04-06T00:28:00.002-05:00

Looking at the latest info, it appears that Monday evening/night could be rough. Many storm chaser message boards are buzzing about the prospects of a regional tornado outbreak in western and central Oklahoma. Wind shear (changing of wind direction or wind speed with height) is forecasted to be strong. Temperatures are going to warm to near 80, and dewpoints should be in the low to mid 60's, which is definitely enough moisture for severe weather.

It seems like I had this exact same post last week, but the storm system didn't pan out as had been forecasted a few days in advance. That could definitely happen again this time, but if this active pattern continues this Spring we are bound to get hit eventually....

More posts to come as needed.

Reader Question

2008-04-03T22:45:00.006-05:00

Sorry, couldn't resist the title.

Someone recently asked me how it is that a tornado can damage one house but leave the house next to it with little, if any, damage. From what I know here are the 3 main reasons:

1) Path of the tornado

Often times a tornado is weak enough or small enough to inflict damage on only a very small path. The most intense winds may be only a few yards or even feet wide, leaving one neighbor unscathed and the other neighbor weighted with bad luck. Also, a tornado may not always be fully in contact with the ground, displaying a "hop and skip" pattern.

2) Structural integrity

Small subtleties in the construction of a house can make a big difference. How well is the frame anchored to the foundation? What kind and how good are the clips that are used to attach the roof to the house? One home may display significantly more damage than another because of a small difference in quality of construction. If one small corner of a roof fails and causes the roof to become detached, the rest of the home is left open for the tornado to damage. A house across the street is hit by the same tornado, but the roof remains intact, and thus no interior damage is done......maybe except for a few windows.

3) Multiple-vortex tornadoes

Sometimes several small "suction vortices" will be visible in a tornado (see above image). Sometimes what appears to be one large tornado is actually many smaller vortices, all rotating around each other (hence the name). Oftentimes these can be the most violent tornadoes, and they can also leave striking damage paths. Since the smaller vortices are all rotating every which way, total destruction can lay next to a few shingles peeled off, only a few hundred feet away. The picture below shows a field that was hit by a multiple-vortex tornado. Note all of the smaller paths where the smaller vortices passed.

I hope that answered the question well enough (or maybe too well for some of you!)

That Was a Little TOO Close....

2008-03-31T09:15:00.003-05:00

Apparently I ticked off Mother Nature with my post about a piece of land being affected by a tornado once every 2,220 years (see two posts below). A couple of homes only a half-a-mile to our NW had their occurrence happen just last night, in the Valencia addition at 178th and Penn. From what I have seen it looks like F1 damage.

It all started about 12:45 last night as I picked up the remote to turn off the TV for the night. It just happened that Gary England was on and he was noting a peculiar "configuration" at 150th and County Line Road. Soon the configuration turned into a full blown hook-echo that almost looked like the eye of a hurricane, and about the same time Val reported a brief tornado. The rotation continued to intensify as it headed pretty much in our direction, with such terms as "could tornado at anytime" and an occasional "WOW" being thrown out by storm chasers that are sitting a mile from our house. It really happened that fast. Going from ready to go to sleep to a possible tornado headed directly at you is a little unnerving. The "official" tornado warning came out a few minutes later, and Liz, myself, and Enid (not so happy in her cat carrier) found ourselves sitting in the bathtub.

I have never been that close to a tornado. I know so because the wind went from howling at 40 MPH out of the SE to dead calm in a couple of minutes. Looking back it is probably when the wind went dead calm that the tornado was only a couple of streets to our NW. It was eerie to say the least.

I never "endorse" watching a particular meteorologist. Until now. I've often joked about the acronym, but I have never seen as detailed of a radar as MOAR. When I get the images from last night I will post them here, they were incredible. If we had been watching the two other stations we would have turned off the TV and fallen asleep. They were five to ten minutes behind Gary in showing the rotation. And throughout the night, Gary interrupted programming the LEAST. When he was on air, it was for relevant updates. Just my "two cents."

By the way, expect another round of severe weather Thursday, possibly significant.

Let Severe Weather Season Begin!

2008-03-29T00:44:00.003-05:00

Sunday night and Monday afternoon could yield the first major severe weather event for the western half of Oklahoma in 2008. A low pressure center will set up over northwest Oklahoma, with a cold front sitting in northern Oklahoma and a dryline extending south across western Oklahoma. Right now it looks like a few isolated storms will form after 5PM west of OKC. If all of the ingredients come into play at the right time (wind shear, moisture, instability), a few tornadoes could occur Sunday night. As a matter of fact, the new severe weather outlook just issued by the Storm Prediction Center mentions the possibility of a couple of strong and long-lived tornadoes Sunday night. It might be a good idea to do a refresher of tornado safety rules in case there is an outbreak.

The cold front won't move through until Monday evening, so the severe threat will continue through Monday afternoon. The amount of severe weather Monday depends on the amount of cloud cover we have in the morning. If storms move out during the morning and we get breaks in the clouds during the day, we could have another substantial event. Only time will tell.

It is more certain that we will get heavy rain Sunday and Monday, on the order of one to inches worth.

Tornado Odds

2008-03-25T22:11:00.003-05:00

Ever wonder what the odds of a particular location being hit by a tornado are? Well, if you live in Oklahoma, it's approximately once every 2,220 years, according to a study that I came across. Whether you live in Moore, downtown OKC, or Edmond, this is how often a piece of property will be affected by a tornado. (Nobody can explain the Moore phenomenon.....I attribute it to plain bad luck.) If you break it down to the odds of being affected by a violent tornado (F4 or F5), the frequency becomes once every 7,000 years or so.

Heat, cold, lightning, and floods all kill more people than tornadoes do every year. Not that the risk from tornadoes should be ignored, but sometimes I think the threat is a little exaggerated, even in the heart of tornado alley.

A Little Background

2008-03-10T22:37:00.005-05:00

(crayon-inspired weather map at age 11)

To kick off my new blog devoted to the weather, I thought I would start with a little background of how I got to this point. This isn't a hobby that I picked up as a teenager or a casual affair for me.....it actually goes back as long as I can remember. My first memory of weather is asking my mom what the "H" on the weather map meant. (It means high pressure for the weather impaired.) It is only fitting that my second memory of weather was a record OKC snowstorm that ruined my bowling birthday party when I turned 7.

I wasn't the most.......ahem........normal boy growing up. While other kids were playing G.I. Joe and Batman, I was drawing weather maps, like the one above. (Hey, I got cool points for liking Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, right?) My mom was great at supporting my interest. She set up a meeting for me with Alan Mitchell, a former weatherman from Channel 9, when I was 10. (I thought it was really cool that he could zoom in on the big swimming pool of one of the nearby houses with their new satellite pictures.) She also brought me to the Omniplex when they opened the "weather studio" so I could practice being on TV. I froze in front of the audience of about 10, needless to say. She also helped me plan out what classes I needed to take in high school to prepare for all of the calculus I needed to take in college for a meteorology degree.

I landed an internship my Senior year in high school at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman. The following year I started my basics at Oklahoma City Community College. Here is where the problem occurred: I loved weather, but was not a big fan of advanced math. And I was going to have to take ALOT of math classes. So after much contemplation, I decided I wasn't willing to go through 5 years of Hades to major in something for which the job market didn't have many openings to begin with. Also, it wasn't like I couldn't be involved with the weather if that didn't become my profession of choice.

So that brings us here. Ten years ago I would have never guessed I would love my job as an Internal Audior at a financial institution and that I would be back in school going for my CPA. I would also have never guessed I would start a weather blog, or would have aspirations of one day becoming a volunteer storm spotter when Liz and I have the available funds. Storm chasing is not cheap.

So welcome to my blog. I will use this as my forum to spout about anything weather related that interests me.......I hope occassionally I interest you too.